2020 Energy Market Outlook

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Canada

• Global Adjustment charge to remain: CA $500k/MW
• Expect Alberta Prices to stay volatile and 10% above 2018 levels
• Current Ontario forward strips within $5 of all-time lows
• Continued federal/provincial conflicts on carbon pricing schemes

California

• Resource Adequacy charges to jump 15–50% across regions
  
• Extreme price volatility expected to continue amidst increased renewable integration
  
• Direct Access and Community Aggregation changing the role of California’s IOUs

Mid-West

• Illinois likely to consider leaving PJM capacity market
  
• Demand charges reach $400,000/MW in Michigan
  
• First Energy Ohio aiming to significantly alter pricing structures
  

New York

• Climate policy reshaping NY energy markets
  
• Capacity prices to reach five-year highs in NYC
  
• Carbon pricing expectations driving price premiums across the state
  

New England

• State-sponsored renewable projects creating new risks for ratepayers
  
• Winter gas constraints expected throughout the decade
  

Texas

• Long-term contracts trading 10% below short-term deals
  
• Wind power directly impacting summer scarcity pricing
  

Mid-Atlantic

• FERC ruling on PJM capacity market creates budgetary risks
  
• System Peak charges eclipse $230,000/MW in New Jersey
  
• Competitive power markets heating up in Virginia
  

Mexico

• Retail market currently offers 10–25% savings vs. utility tariff
  
• 300+ of Mexico’s biggest power users advancing retail market
  
• 60+ retail suppliers competing in a quickly maturing market

Get access to our complete Market Outlook report in 2020 and beyond.